| Weather shouldn’t be a killer Dear Indian Express Readers, The Southwest monsoon has left a trail of destruction across large parts of the country. The season began with relentless rain causing floods in South India. Large parts of the country’s northeast, too, were under water and landslides and flash floods caused havoc in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Sikkim and Mizoram in May-June. In Mumbai, the early onset of the season caught the authorities unawares. In the last four weeks, large parts of the Himalayan region have been witnesses to the complex and often uncertain relationship between heavy rains, landslides and flash floods. In Jammu and Kashmir at least 130 people, many of them pilgrims, have lost their lives to extreme rainfall events in the past three weeks. The Punjab and Haryana governments are at loggerheads over mitigating the damage caused by water bodies surging into fields and homes. The causes for the toll and disruptions vary across the country. However, a few trends have been apparent for more than a decade. The Western Disturbances, usually a feature of the winter and spring seasons, are extending their stay in the country. The effects of the low-pressure system, which originates in the Mediterranean Sea and typically moves eastward across Central Asia and northern India, are now being felt during the monsoon season as well. At least 15 such disturbances have occurred over the country since the onset of the rainy season. The changing relationship between the Westerlies and the Indian monsoon has played a big role in aggravating weather extremities. When the weather behaves erratically, saving lives involves working across a range of variables. That said, the accuracy of India Meteorological Department’s forecasts has improved significantly in recent times. The trouble, however, is that administrative authorities do not always heed the weather office’s warnings. Take the toll taken, on August 14, by the cloudburst in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kishtwar district, for instance. At least 65 people, mostly pilgrims, lost their lives. Questions are now being raised on why the devotees were allowed to go ahead despite an IMD alert about the possibility of flash floods and landslides on the pilgrimage track. Less than two weeks later, another cloudburst struck on the Vaishno Devi pilgrimage route, killing more than 30 devotees. Fingers have again been pointed at the authorities for not taking adequate precautions despite a weather office warning. In the mountains, intense bursts of rain exacerbate local erosion. The slopes in the Himalayan region are, in any case, vulnerable to the subterranean reworking of the rocks. People in the world’s youngest mountain system must, therefore, be shielded from the vagaries of geology. Climate change has made their lives even more perilous. A few institutions, both government and non-government, have been working to develop early warning systems to mitigate the damage caused by unstable slopes. The Geological Survey of India has reportedly completed the landscape susceptibility mapping of the Himalayan region. The challenge now is to scale up the system and technology and develop early warning systems that can check destruction and prevent loss of lives. It's, however, still difficult to predict flash floods with pinpoint accuracy. For instance, it’s now apparent that the floods in Dharali in Uttarakhand were not preceded by heavier than usual rainfall. That shouldn’t, however, mean a free play for fatalism. Planners should, instead, take their cues from science. ISRO’s visuals after the Dharali floods, for instance, underscore the area’s fragilities. The area’s market, swept away by floods on August 5, was located on a fan-shaped land, formed over years by sediments deposited by the Kheer Ganga River. Constructions over the river’s floodplains added to the area’s precarity. These fans and floodplains are the waterbodies safety valves. It’s well-known that rivers have a proclivity to reclaim such areas. After flash floods claimed more than 4,000 lives in the state in 2013, the Uttarakhand High Court issued orders to stop construction near rivers. These directives have only been implemented in the breach. With Himalayan states prioritising tourism and infrastructure development for revenue, construction activities give very little importance to slope stability related information, even as the science of rock movement in the Himalaya has constantly evolved. Climate change, no doubt, is an emerging challenge and there are quite a few unknowns. What’s unpardonable, however, is the political failure to listen to science to shield people. By all accounts, global warming, melting glaciers and the complex interaction of weather systems will make the monsoons even more unpredictable. Policymakers, planners and administrators would do well to look at the evidence already at hand. And, there is much that they can use to save lives. Till next time, Stay safe Kaushik |
