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Good evening, The Indian summer is well and truly here, and I am writing this from a city (Benglauru) where we got some relief today, with timely showers. That said, the Indian Meterological Department (IMD) is forecasting an “above-normal” number of heatwave days across most of India (north, central, and east) from April to June. This is consistent with the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves. Last year, during Earth’s warmest year on record, India saw 554 heatwave days—the sum of heatwave days in all states—the highest in 15 years! Studies indicate that heatwaves have risen by *three days* per decade since 2000, mainly in India’s central, northwest and southeastern regions. Despite improved forecasting, heat action plans in 23 states remain inadequately implemented. Short-term measures like providing water and shade are prioritised, while overlooking long-term solutions like urban greening and water body rejuvenation. Governments tend to react to heat waves rather than proactively integrating these plans into broader strategies. This could lead to grave health and economic impacts. On that note, let’s dive into today’s edition 👇🏽
📝 The Debrief
Brace yourselves: The worst is yet to come
So, it happened. Liberation Day came, and US President Donald Trump “woke up and chose violence”, as the popular meme goes. His Wednesday announcement turned back the clock with the most expansive tariff regime since the Great Depression, when the Smoot-Hawley Act, formally known as the United States Tariff Act of 1930, was enacted. MAWA: Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on all goods imported from other countries, including from uninhabited territories (except by penguins) like the Heard Island and McDonald Islands (off the Antarctica coast), while imposing additional country-specific reciprocal tariffs, with some “worst offenders” getting “discounts.” (In India’s case, the country-specific tariff that will take effect on April 9 will be 17%). His administration believes these tariffs, if implemented in their entirety, will contribute some $6 trillion in revenue to the US economy over 10 years. In doing so, Trump rewrote the post-World War II international trade order and touted a “Make America Wealthy Again” agenda. Mixed bag: At one level, India might have gotten away with only 27% tariffs, significantly lower than its Asian peers in China (34%) and Vietnam (46%). Both countries are major exporters to the US and are deeply critical to the manufacturing supply chain across sectors such as technology (read: Apple!) and fashion (read: Nike etc). The silver lining, however, is that India’s lower tariffs, compared to other countries, could incentivise trade diversion in its favour, particularly in sectors such as textiles and garments, where Vietnam and Bangladesh (37%) have been slapped with higher tariffs. Allies not spared: Trump didn’t spare US allies such as Japan and South Korea, imposing 24% and 25% duties on their imports, respectively. Goods manufactured in the European Union will attract 20% tariffs, while the UK got away with the bare minimum of 10%. Shockingly, Trump imposed 32% tariffs on Taiwan, a key chip manufacturer. China and the European Union have vowed to retaliate. Impact: These tariffs (if entirely implemented) will slow down growth in the US while also increasing inflation (aka stagflation). There is a possibility that most countries, with the steep surge in tariffs, could end up in recession. As the former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers shared on X, “Trump’s tariffs are the most expensive and masochistic the US has pursued in decades. A crude estimate of Trump’s tariffs puts the projected loss at $20 trillion or well over $200,000 per family of four.” Summers later revised his projection to $30 trillion or $300,000 for a family of four. Phew.
✍️ From our newsroom
Talent-spotting machine: The Mumbai Indians have been notorious (in a good way) for unearthing unheard-of talent and giving it a shot at the big time in the Indian Premier League (IPL). Their vast, comprehensive, and football-like talent scouting machinery is the envy of its rivals and has given the sport the likes of Hardik Pandya and Jasprit Bumrah. My colleague Sandip G casts his net on the process, which invariably starts on a WhatsApp group where videos are posted, and subsequently, the aspirant gets called to Mumbai, following assessments. That’s just the start of what eventually culminates—the player making his way into Mumbai Indians after turning out in some tournaments while also spending time and gaining experience with its satellite franchises, as Vignesh Puthur did with the MI Cape Town franchise in the SA20.
🔎 Need to know
Resistence: The US Senate passed a bill that aims to stop Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports. The bill saw four Republicans break ranks with their party and join the Democrats in a 51-48 vote. The bill now moves to the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority is highly aligned with Trump.
Over to you: The contentious Waqf Bill passed 288-232 in the Lok Sabha after 13 hours of intense debate and discussion in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Today, it moves to the Rajya Sabha for consideration, where the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) holds a numerical advantage (125-88). I’m in: E-commerce giant Amazon made a 11th hour bid to buy the short video app TikTok. Amazon wrote a letter to Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary, with an offer to buy the whole of TikTok. The deadline for the sale of the app’s US unit is Saturday, April 5, with several contenders, including a consortium of non-Chinese investors into ByteDance, holding an edge.
🎙️Expresso Playlist!
In today’s Playlist, I’ll recommend an episode from Planet Money featuring an interview with South Korean economist and academic Ha-Joon Chang, whose pro-tariff arguments stand out in these rather interesting times.
✋🏽One last thing
I’ll leave you with this fascinating Bloomberg Businessweek story on how airlines are trying to improve in-flight food by adding items like burgers. However, there are some things they’d like to crack to premiumise the experience further: French fries and avocado toast.
That’s all from me today. Thank you so much for reading this edition. If you enjoy the Evening Expresso, tell your friends to subscribe to the newsletter. You can do so by signing up for the Morning Expresso. Also, you can contact me via email for tips, feedback, or just a hello! 😀 Until tomorrow, Venkat Ananth |
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