| 
Good evening, This week, the Trump administration counted down its first 100 days in office. While its moves – from DOGE to deportations to leaks to reciprocal tariffs – have triggered significant disruptions across the board, there were no departures from the administration. That changed on Thursday, when Mike Waltz, a former Florida Congressman turned Trump administration official, swapped his role as National Security Advisor for the US ambassadorship to the United Nations. Waltz’s exit follows his leading role in “Signalgate,” where he inadvertently added a journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, to a group chat on the encrypted messaging platform Signal, in which administration officials were discussing and planning an attack on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will double up as a National Security Advisor, and in doing so, will be following in Henry Kissinger’s footsteps half a century later. On that note, let’s dive in 👇🏽
📝 The Debrief
Following a diplomatic offensive, India is now seeking to isolate Pakistan financially, especially in international fora
In the aftermath of last week’s terrorist attack in Pahalgam, the Indian government, as we noted on Tuesday in this letter, has mounted a diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan internationally. Now, the government, as my colleague Aanchal Magazine reports, is considering two key steps aimed at “curbing financial flows that aid the neighbour fund terror activities.” So, what are these, and how will they play out? Grey matters: These include an effort to bring Pakistan back onto the ‘grey list’ of the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) ‘grey list’. This is a significant move, and well, Pakistan has been here before – having been placed on the ‘grey list’ in June 2018, and facing ‘increased monitoring’ until its removal in October 2022. Why does the list matter? Well, because it severely hampers foreign direct investment (FDI) and capital flows into the country, as businesses will be subject to increased due diligence. Indian government officials say this was key in curbing illicit fund flows from Pakistan into India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir. The interesting aspect here is that Pakistan is not a member of the FATF, despite being part of a regional FATF-like organisation, the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering. Tricky tranche: India, sources told The Indian Express, will also raise objections to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) continued financing of a three-year $7-billion aid package, which began in July last year, under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. This process works as follows: once signed, there will be six performance reviews over the three-year duration of the bailout. The release of the next tranche, approximately $1 billion, will depend on the success of these reviews. Now, this is where India is likely to step in and raise objections, per sources, to say that Pakistan diverted funds into nefarious activities and terror attacks by its jihadi tanzeems. History sheet: Among the two, the FATF could be a more definitive move, given that we have been there before with Pakistan. India’s case is bolstered by the support and condolence messages it received from 23 out of 40 FATF members following the Pahalgam attack, including from countries such as the US, France, Germany, Australia, the European Commission, and the Gulf states. India will now have to nominate Pakistan for ‘grey list’ status during the next Plenary meeting in June. It will be based on specific money laundering, terror financing or proliferation financing risks or threats. Pakistan first appeared on this list in 2008 (removed in 2009), 2012 (removed in 2013) and 2018 (removed in 2022).
✍️ From our newsroom
The Mullah Jarnail: There’s something nefarious about Pakistani Army Chiefs with roots in India’s Jalandhar. In the 1980s, General Zia-ul-Haq oversaw the Islamization of the once-professional Pakistani military, a gradual process that led to the current Army Chief, General Asim Munir, rising through the ranks. Munir received his education at the Markazi Madrasah Dar-ul-Tajweed, an Islamic seminary in Rawalpindi, before graduating from the Officers' Training School at Mangla. However, beyond his military exploits, the 57-year-old Munir is a one-of-a-kind jarnail, rooted in overt religiousity. As a 38-year-old Lieutenant Colonel posted as a military attache in Saudi Arabia, Munir had memorised the Holy Quran. This feat earned him the title of Hafiz-e-Koran, and it is evident when he speaks, seamlessly switching between English, Urdu, and Arabic, with the content peppered with Quranic verses and Islamic theology. My colleague, our Diplomatic Editor, Shubhajit Roy, has this must-read profile of Asim Munir.
🔎 Need to know
US-bound: Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed that the majority of iPhones sold in the United States will “have India as their country of origin.” The shift is likely to take place from the June quarter, Cook added.
New port: Prime Minister Narendra Modi commissioned the Vizhinjam port on Friday. Modi said the port, located in Kerala's capital Thiruvananthapuram, will bring “economic stability to Kerala and the country.” India-bound: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is likely to visit India next week. While in New Delhi, Araghchi is expected to meet his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, as well as other senior leaders. Notably, Araghchi offered to mediate between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of last week’s Pahalgam terror attack.
🎙️Expresso Playlist!
In today’s Playlist, I’ll recommend an episode from Bloomberg’s Trumponomics podcast, which examines India’s significant rise in Trump’s orbit and how the President may be playing a role in aiding India’s long-term ambitions to displace China as a global manufacturing hub.
✋🏽 One last thing
I’ll leave you with this fascinating oral history of OpenAI’s AI chatbot, ChatGPT, in Quanta Magazine. It’s well worth your time.
That’s all from me today. Thank you so much for reading this edition. If you enjoy the Evening Expresso, tell your friends to subscribe to the newsletter. You can do so by signing up for the Morning Expresso. Additionally, you can reach me via email for tips, feedback, or simply to say hello! 😀 Have a great weekend. Until Monday, Venkat Ananth |
No comments:
Post a Comment