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Good evening, US President Donald Trump had a busy day, hurling tariff announcements in quick succession. However, his deal with the “country of Pakistan” has emerged as a fairly curious one. Over the past three months, Trump has quietly drifted towards Pakistan, buoyed by its ready embrace of cryptocurrency and its offer to supply the US with access to rare earth minerals. Now, Trump announced that the US had secured an agreement with Pakistan, whereby both nations would collaborate on “developing their massive Oil Reserves.” He wrote, “We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!” While Trump’s offer may sound generous, it doesn’t match reality, as Pakistan also relies heavily on energy imports and has little domestic crude oil production. As of 2016, Pakistan held 353,500,000 barrels of “proven oil reserves,” according to Worldometer, “ranking #52 in the world and accounting for about 0.021% of the world’s total oil reserves…” On that note, let’s dive in 👇🏽
📝 The Debrief Breaking down a frantic day in Trump’s tariff announcements With less than 24 hours remaining before US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs come into force, Indian exporters will need to contend with a 25% levy on all US-bound goods. This was after Trump announced on Truth Social that the US was imposing the levy on its “friend” India, because of its “most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary barriers” in the world, as he called them. Indian markets declined nearly 1 per cent in morning trade following Trump’s tariff announcement, reflecting concerns over exports and their immediate impact on the economy. Russia pivot: Trump didn’t stop there. He intensified his stance on India’s energy and military purchases from Russia, and introduced a “penalty” for these transactions (a secondary tariff). Late on Wednesday (US time), Trump irresistibly took to Truth Social, writing, “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies together for all I care. We have done very little business with India; their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together.” Negotiating tactic: India seems resolutely focused on securing a deal by fall, i.e. October. The Indian government stated as such in a statement, “India and the US have been engaged in negotiations on a fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial trade agreement over the last few months,” adding, “We remain committed to that objective.” Trump’s announcement might bring those timelines a little forward, with negotiations continuing post-August 1. Eventually, India may come away with a 15-20 per cent tariff rate, analysts say. A sixth round of talks is expected to take place in August, with a potential deal not likely before September or October. More confusion: While some government officials told The Indian Express that they had anticipated the number, there is concern and confusion—in equal measure—over the additional penalties Trump announced and the impact of sectoral tariffs (aluminium, copper, etc), in addition to the headline 25% tariff. Indian government officials insist that they’d rather wait for an “equitable deal” that doesn’t negatively impact farmers and small businesses than rush into signing “a bad deal.” To quote a senior government official, “No deal is better than a bad deal.” Zoom out: India’s negotiations could be impacted by the recent talks between the US and China, currently at an advanced stage. They are likely to move towards a deal that includes favourable tariff terms, and potential waivers on secondary tariffs – including those on Russian oil imports and the proposed 10 per cent BRICS tariff. That could complicate matters for New Delhi, as it seeks a 10-20 per cent tariff differential with China.
✍️ From our newsroom Rare but not unusual: An 8.8 magnitude earthquake rocked Russia’s remote Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday, sending 3–4 metre waves across the northern Pacific and triggering tsunamis as far as Hawaii and Japan. Damage and flooding were reported, but the sparsely populated region, just 0.62 people per sq km, saw no casualties. Why is that? As my colleagues Amitabh Sinha and Alind Chauhan explain, Kamchatka sits on the Circum-Pacific belt, the “Ring of Fire”, the planet’s most restless seismic zone, responsible for over 80% of big quakes, including Chile’s 9.5 in 1960 and Alaska’s 9.2 in 1964. This fiery loop, where the dense Pacific plate dives beneath continental crust in a process called subduction, is a factory for megaquakes. Only five quakes above 8.5 have hit in the past two decades, all along this belt. The Alpide best, through the Himalayas and into Turkey, causes fewer quakes but deadlier ones, while the mid-Atlantic ridge rumbles quietly undersea. Experts say a 10.0 quake is virtually impossible because no faultline on Earth is long enough.
🔎 Need to know Free to go: A special court in Mumbai acquitted all seven accused in the 2008 Malegaon bomb blast case, including former BJP MP Pragya Thakur and Lt Col Prasad Shrikant Purohit. The judge stated that the prosecution failed to provide “cogent and reliable evidence” and did not “establish guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.” On the list: The US imposed sanctions on eight India-based companies and five Indian nationals as part of its Iran-related measures. These include entities involved in energy trade with Iran, as well as those part of a shipping empire controlled by the son of a senior political adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Joining in: After similar announcements by France and the United Kingdom, Canada will also recognise a Palestinian state, becoming the third G7 nation to do so. Malta has also followed suit.
🎙️Expresso Playlist
In today’s Playlist, I’ll recommend an episode from Vox’s Today Explained on how AI is killing the internet. Sounds pretty scary, I know. But the episode delves deep into a copyright infringement lawsuit an AI company won against authors. That fight is now central to the internet’s future. Tune in.
✋🏽 One last thing
I’ll leave you with this intriguing Economist story on satire in the Trump 2.0 era.
Until tomorrow, Venkat Ananth |
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