It's the sixth consecutive day of severe storms in the Central US, after yesterday's peak. The South is still at risk later today (you can check that out here), mainly from damaging wind and very large hail. Tornadoes are possible, so be alert and stay safe. In the meantime, Andrew's here to give us the latest on El Niño.
—Angela Fritz, Meteorologist
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Why you should believe (most) of the El Niño hype |
Sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean on April 26, 2026. (Sam Hart/CNN Weather/NOAA)
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You may have heard by now that a strong — possibly “Super” — El Niño is coming soon and will rearrange global weather and climate patterns.
Typically, I would be writing to clamp down on the hype and speculation about the occurrence of an El Niño, as well as its intensity. Not this time.
It is true that El Niño forecasts made at this time of year tend to be less accurate than ones issued in May and beyond. Meteorologists refer to this as the “spring predictability barrier.” You can think of it as if forecasters are making projections through a thick fog, trying to find their way through breaks in the clouds, toward accuracy.
But this year is a major exception to that rule. The spring predictability barrier still exists and lends some uncertainty to the forecast, but an El Niño, characterized by warmer than average waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is clearly emerging through the forecasting fog, like a lighthouse coming into focus along the shore.
Surface water temperatures in the region of the Pacific Ocean that scientists monitor for El Niño have been warming sharply in recent weeks, and a huge amount of heat is being transferred beneath the sea surface from the Western Pacific to the east – where it will ascend in the water column and increase surface temperatures further.
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“It is an unusually confident forecast.” |
Nat Johnson, NOAA meteorologist |
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So, things are certainly looking El Niño-ish in the Pacific Ocean already, though that does not guarantee that it will occur, or that it will be a Super El Niño with ocean temperature anomalies of greater than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (I know it doesn’t sound like much but trust me, that’s huge).
Importantly, each forecast group that generates El Niño projections say it is all systems go for a potentially very strong event. According to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast published April 9, there is a 61% chance that El Niño will emerge during the May to July period, and that it is likely to be at least moderately strong.
However, the forecast, notably, did provide the odds for a Super El Niño (or at least a very strong one). It placed it at about a 25% chance, and given we're still in the spring predictability barrier, that's quite aggressive.
Newer projections from the World Meteorological Organization, a UN agency, and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society are even more bullish.
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The IRI’s predictions “plume” graphic, which includes a slew of computer model projections, shows there is a bit of a divide between different types of models. Some show a stronger El Niño than others, though virtually all of them show an El Niño occurring this year. (International Research Institute for Climate and Society).
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The spring is a time of year when developing El Niños can be disrupted or fizzle out. So far, that's not the case this year, said NOAA meteorologist Nat Johnson, with ocean temperatures increasing and other signs of a brewing El Niño continuing.
“It is an unusually confident forecast,” he said, noting that since the early April forecast was made, conditions have continued to trend toward El Niño. Johnson also said that a rapid swing from a La Niña, which is El Niño’s colder water sibling, to a strong El Niño in the same calendar year “would be unusual.”
“Things are changing more rapidly than we typically see,” Johnson said.
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The likelihood of a strong El Niño, or a Super El Niño, from NOAA's April 9 forecast. This might at first seem like a small likelihood, but it is actually unusually high for an El Niño prediction made in April, and is cause for concern for people in regions typically affected by El Niño.
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Why we care so much about El Niño |
It is important to keep in mind why we care about a blob of very warm water in the Pacific Ocean, which is so remote from our daily lives. And that is because El Niño events can have a huge influence on global weather patterns, while boosting the planet’s overall average temperature on top of human-caused global warming.
A strong to very strong El Niño is almost guaranteed to lead to a new hottest year on record for the planet, as the previous El Niño did most recently in 2024. In a warming world, each El Niño is able to vault global temperatures to new heights, like a person riding an escalator while jumping up and down.
El Niños bring heavy rain and snow to the West Coast, extending across the Southern tier of the US during the winter. There can be a tendency toward floods in southeast Africa, while drought becomes more likely around the equator and southern parts of the same continent.
Drought can envelop much of Australia in El Niño years, while parts of Asia and South America see increased rainfall and flooding risks as well.
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If this does turn out to be a Super El Niño, it would be the first since 2015-2016. And it being super would increase the likelihood of its impacts while making some of the effects more severe.
El Niños can cause billions in damage. Knowing that one is likely allows humanitarian organizations and governments to pre-stage stores of food around the world to prepare for coming droughts and flood-related population displacements and can even move markets given the potential agricultural effects.
The bottom line: Stay tuned for some wild weather around the world, as well as newly smashed climate records, because an El Niño is coming, regardless of the spring predictability barrier.
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A helicopter conducts firefighting operations as a wildfire burns in Otsuchi, Japan, on April 26. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters)
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Andrew has been covering weather and climate for a long time, including at least two Super El Niños. |
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Angela Fritz, Meteorologist, Senior Director, CNN Climate & Weather
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Angela is keeping an eye on severe thunderstorms today.
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