Plus, relocating New Orleans
Weather in the US might be confused about the season (Is it summer? Is it spring? Depends on the week...), but the heat is on in the UK. London set a new May record for the entire country when it hit nearly 95 degrees Fahrenheit yesterday. (That's 34.8 degrees Celsius for those who observe the less-arbitrary of our temperature scales).
If you're looking for a cooldown, I highly recommend the story about the history of the ice industry in CNN's new weather app. You can download that here if you haven't yet! — Angela
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Don’t sleep on this hurricane season |
Hurricane Melissa seen via satellite imagery in October 2025. (CSU/CIRA & NOAA)
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The budding “Super” El Niño could damper hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, limiting the number of storms that form, but the opposite is true in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean basins.
These areas tend to see bolstered hurricane seasons during an El Niño year, and the National Hurricane Center is calling for above average activity in both regions.
In the Pacific, unusually hot ocean waters and favorable wind patterns are likely to spawn more frequent and powerful storms.
This will, in turn, provide more opportunities for storms to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico and California’s Baja Peninsula. The setup going into hurricane season is unusually favorable for a hurricane to even approach southern California largely intact, which is extremely rare, thanks to a marine heat wave taking place just off the coast, which is expected to persist through the hurricane season.
But it’s not just the hurricanes themselves — the Southwest will be more likely to get surges of tropical moisture from the remnants of storms that form in the eastern Pacific. This could benefit the intense drought in the region, but also lead to damaging flash flooding.
None of this means the Atlantic and Gulf coasts can let their guard down. The forecast for a below average hurricane season says little to nothing about whether and where a storm could make landfall. Yes, the season overall is likely to be below average, but all it takes is one landfalling storm to cause billions in damage.
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That said, El Niño years do tend to feature fewer Atlantic hurricane landfalls over time compared to years when the Pacific weather pattern is absent, or when its cold-water sibling, La Niña, is occurring. But fewer doesn’t mean none.
It is clear from historical records that areas that may be at greater risk of landfall this year include places that rarely see such tempests.
For example, a more active Central Pacific season may threaten Hawaii with a landfall or close call, even though the islands tend to be protected by colder ocean waters compared to the tropics. Going into this season, nearly the entire North Pacific is abnormally warm, which raises red flags for Hawaii that its hurricane force field, so to speak, is down.
The last “major” hurricane of Category 3 intensity or greater to hit Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which caused $6.9 billion in damage (in adjusted 2024 dollars), mainly in Kauai, and killed 6 people.
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Population growth and hurricane amnesia — fading memories over time of what such storms are like and how to prepare for them — have made the islands more vulnerable since Iniki struck.
Multiple hurricanes have since approached the Hawaiian Islands, but most if not all of them weakened considerably when they encountered cooler ocean temperatures, bringing gusty winds and flash flooding as their main impacts. Winds from one such storm that never made landfall in Hawaii, Hurricane Dora, were implicated in helping to fan the flames of the deadly Maui wildfires in 2023, which destroyed much of the community of Lahaina.
This year could feature a storm that brings more direct and intense impacts.
The bottom line is that whether you live in a hurricane-prone location in the Central Pacific or along the Atlantic coastline, you should prepare for this season like you would any other, regardless of the slight shift in overall storm activity that El Niño may bring.
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What Andrew is reading... |
- Catching up on this New York Times story on how NWS' severe weather forecasters still use colored pencils to make hand-drawn maps as the first step in preparing their severe weather forecasts. The drawing process teaches them about the atmospheric conditions, they say.
- This NYT and this Washington Post obituary for Rafe Pomerance, an environmental activist who first called attention to the climate change threat in 1979 and worked tirelessly to elevate the issue until shortly before his death on May 21. Pomerance was a main character in this Nathaniel Rich story and subsequent book, which is now being made into a movie. I was lucky enough to know Rafe and his infectious optimism and determination. His passing is a huge loss for the climate community.
- This CNN story by my colleague Laura Paddison, about a provocative new study that argues for the near-term start of a planned relocation process for the city of New Orleans in the face of sea level rise.
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Trees stand in the morning mist during sunrise at Richmond Park in London on May 24. (Brook Mitchell/AFP/Getty Images)
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Andrew is keeping a wary eye on the tropics.
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Angela Fritz, Meteorologist, Senior Director, Weather & Climate
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Angela has often wondered what it would take for the US and other Fahrenheit countries to switch to Celsius. It just makes so much sense. She welcomes your hot takes via email.
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