More than 300 reports of severe weather (tornado, hail or damaging wind) were sent to the Storm Prediction Center yesterday in the Plains and Midwest. The threat has decreased a bit as the system shifts east (you can check the details here), but still a good idea to keep an eye on your favorite weather app.
Oh hey! I have a weather app to recommend! We launched CNN Weather on iOS last week and I hope you'll give it a try. You can download it here. We were covering the storms there yesterday, including a live stream with our lead meteorologist, Brandon Miller. I'm excited to keep building new features that will give you an early heads up on disruptive weather plus everything you need on the reg to plan your day. And don't fear — an Android version is on the roadmap. (Here's my story about why we launched an app.)
Today, Andrew is giving us a behind-the-scenes look at how he's thinking about this El Niño and our coverage of it. It's going to be a big one, but there are some interesting twists he's keeping an eye on. —Angela
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Here’s how I am approaching our Super El Niño coverage |
You’ve likely heard by now that there is a potentially very strong El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
As a reporter and an expert on weather and climate, I’m approaching El Niño with a mix of fascination and caution. Caution, because there’s still a lot that we don’t know about how it will evolve and what its global effects will be.
Fascination, because of the vast array of significant weather events this phenomenon can influence, from leading to drier Indian Monsoons to juicing the Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane seasons.
First, there’s the basics to know: El Niño is a weather cycle in the Pacific Ocean that features above normal ocean temperatures near the equator. The warmer water alters atmospheric circulation across the Pacific and can reverberate worldwide, contributing to droughts, heat waves, floods and altered hurricane and typhoon seasons, among other effects.
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The 1997-1998 El Niño was when the term first broke through the zeitgeist. |
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El Niños even spike the planet’s average temperature, with an intense event all but assured to lead to a new warmest year on record within the next two years.
The term “Super El Niño” is quasi-technical, but we use it when tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures exceed a certain level. Super El Niño has been used in the scientific literature before, and while it is not 100% certain that this upcoming event will qualify for the informal title, there is already enough confidence to be using the term.
We can’t yet say whether this will be the most intense El Niño since 1997-1998, which was the “El Niño of the Century” (and when the term El Niño first broke through the zeitgeist), or even the most intense back to 1950 or longer. But what we can say is that computer models, plus weather observations, are nearly unanimous in showing the formation of an El Niño developing ASAP and strengthening.
Scientists may not love the Super El Niño moniker, preferring to refer to the intensity simply as very strong. However, it is a term that intrigues and sparks curiosity in weather and climate, much like polar vortex and other technical and semi-technical terms that have broken through popular culture.
One key thing you won’t see me do is hop on the bandwagon of an individual computer model run and conclude that its projections show exactly how this event will play out.
Good scientists consider an array of models and weather and climate observations when making their El Niño forecasts, and we agree with that approach. Our coverage will likely feature NOAA’s projections, given their expertise in El Niño and its cold-water sibling, La Niña.
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The climate change wild card |
On the fascination front, there’s a tantalizing possibility that climate change is altering El Niño’s effects. Since the world's oceans are already warming rapidly, it’s possible that El Niño’s impacts will be muted, since the entire process hinges on ocean temperature anomalies.
This Super El Niño’s warmth might not stand out among a literal sea of very warm water, and we might not see the atmospheric circulation change the same way it has in past events.
I’m keeping a close eye on that in particular, given that much of the North Pacific Ocean is near record-warm right now.
At CNN Weather, I’ll be covering the twists and turns of this event, explaining to you what is going on and why, while trying to refrain from blaring headlines that blow this phenomenon out of proportion or blames every single weather event on El Niño.
Stay tuned...
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That’s the number of model ensemble members that will be part of each run of Google DeepMind’s WeatherNext model during the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. It's a huge expansion from 50 members last season and could lead to more accurate forecasts.
Each member — a single model run in the 1,000-piece collection — will be given slightly different initial conditions to give meteorologists insight into forecast uncertainty. For example, if the 1,000 forecasts diverge significantly in their projections for a storm’s track, that would indicate high uncertainty. (If you’d like to understand more about ensemble models and how they work, let me know and I can cover it in an upcoming newsletter.)
Google DeepMind’s AI model was the most accurate hurricane model during last year’s hurricane season, and predicted Hurricane Melissa’s rapid intensification five days in advance, the company said Tuesday.
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A severe storm passes over Craig, Nebraska, on May 17. (Scott Schilke/Sipa USA/AP)
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Andrew is keeping a close watch on the tropical Pacific Ocean to monitor how the upcoming El Niño is developing.
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Angela Fritz, Meteorologist, Senior Director, CNN Weather & Climate
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Angela is welcoming your feedback on our new iOS app, and you can send her emails about it if you'd like! angela.fritz@cnn.com
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